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WEB Core Inflation: Assessing Underlying Price Trends in India
Introduction
WEB Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, serves as a crucial economic indicator to gauge the underlying inflationary pressures within an economy. In India, where inflation has been a persistent concern, understanding core inflation is essential for policymakers and investors.
Methodology
This study examines eleven potential core inflation measures in India, utilizing data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) compiled by the National Statistical Office (NSO). The measures considered include both traditional and alternative approaches, such as trimmed means, weighted medians, and superlative indices.
Results
The analysis reveals significant variations in the estimated core inflation rates across the different measures. Some measures, such as the median CPI excluding food and energy, exhibit relatively low volatility and provide a stable indication of core inflation. Others, such as the trimmed mean CPI, are more sensitive to extreme price changes and can be influenced by short-term fluctuations.
Discussion
The choice of an appropriate core inflation measure depends on the specific objectives of the analysis. For policymakers, a measure that captures the underlying inflation pressures while being robust to temporary shocks is desirable. For investors, a measure that provides a timely and accurate signal of future inflation trends is more relevant.
Conclusion
This study contributes to the ongoing debate on core inflation measurement in India by providing a comprehensive analysis of various candidates. The findings suggest that policymakers and investors should carefully consider the suitability of different measures for their specific needs. Monitoring core inflation remains essential for assessing the underlying price trends and informing economic decision-making in India. ```
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